Pandemic-Era Excess Savings - San Francisco Fed
WEBPandemic-Era Excess Savings updates estimates of the remaining stock of pandemic-era aggregate excess savings in the U.S. economy, defined as the difference between actual savings and the pre-pandemic trend. Pandemic-related fiscal support combined with a drop in household spending contributed to a sizable increase in household savings in the ...
Daily News Sentiment Index - San Francisco Fed
WEBThe Daily News Sentiment Index is a high frequency measure of economic sentiment based on lexical analysis of economics-related news articles. The index is described in Buckman, Shapiro, Sudhof, and Wilson (2020) and based on the methodology developed in Shapiro, Sudhof, and Wilson (2020). Shapiro, Sudhof, and Wilson (2020, hereafter SSW ...
Economists - San Francisco Fed
WEBThe Economic Research Department includes PhD economists, associate economists, economic analysts, and research associates who are recent graduates from colleges across the country. The department also has an active visitor program. Below are lists of our current Economists, visiting researchers, and management team, as well as information about our Research Associate Program.
Can Government Spending Help to Escape Recessions?
WEBFeb 1, 2021 · A key to designing fiscal policy is understanding how government purchases affect economic output overall. Research suggests that expanding government spending is not very effective at stimulating an economy in normal times. However, in deep downturns when monetary policy is constrained at the zero lower bound, public spending is more potent and can become an effective way to escape a recession.
Supply- and Demand-Driven PCE Inflation - San Francisco Fed
WEBSupply- and Demand-Driven PCE Inflation updates data on the contributions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation from supply-driven versus demand-driven components. This tool is intended to track the changes in the extent to which either supply or demand factors are responsible for inflation levels.
Current Recession Risk According to the Yield Curve
WEBMay 9, 2022 · The slope of the Treasury yield curve is a popular recession predictor with an excellent track record. The two most common alternative measures of the slope typically move together but have diverged recently, making the resulting recession signals unclear. Economic arguments and empirical evidence, including its more accurate predictions, favor the difference between 10-year and 3-month ...
The Role of Immigration in U.S. Labor Market Tightness
WEBFeb 27, 2023 · Immigrants contribute a large portion of the growth in the U.S. population and labor force. However, immigration flows into the United States slowed significantly following immigration policy changes from 2017 to 2020 and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Analysis of state-level data shows that this migration slowdown tightened local labor markets modestly, raising the ratio of job vacancies ...
Why Is U.S. Inflation Higher than in Other Countries?
WEBMar 28, 2022 · Inflation rates in the United States and other developed economies have closely tracked each other historically. Problems with global supply chains and changes in spending patterns due to the COVID-19 pandemic have pushed up inflation worldwide. However, since the first half of 2021, U.S. inflation has increasingly outpaced inflation in other developed countries. Estimates suggest that fiscal ...
What is the Beige Book, and what role does it play in setting …
WEBNov 1, 2003 · We’ve been waiting for this question! Here is the short answer describing the Beige Book from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System’s web site.This is the same site you should use to find current and historic national and regional Beige Book survey results:. Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions
Effects of Asset Valuations on U.S. Wealth Distribution
WEBAug 30, 2021 · The average household in the top 1% of the wealth distribution is about 40 times as wealthy as the average household in the top 10–50%. The differences are even starker between the top 1% and the bottom half: the average household in the top 1% is 750 times wealthier than the average household in the bottom 50%, reflecting that a substantial share of households in the bottom half have ...
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